Is Cuba on the Verge of Collapse?

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Donald Trump’s oil blockade of Cuba is having disastrous effects on their already struggling economy, with food, medicine and energy shortages fuelling social unrest. But what does Trump actually want to achieve? And is this the best way to go about it?

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Background on US-Cuba & Cuba-Venezuela relations:
https://www.cfr.org/timelines/us-cuba-relations
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-cuba-trump-mexico-oil/

Trump cuts off oil and threatens tariffs:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/01/addressing-threats-to-the-united-states-by-the-government-of-cuba/
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/01/addressing-threats-to-the-united-states-by-the-government-of-cuba/

Cuba receives no oil shipments in January:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-09/cuba-gets-no-oil-for-first-time-in-a-decade-as-mexico-pulls-back
https://www.ft.com/content/f15ac8c6-c76b-40a1-bb41-95abbed7d8aa

Mexico halts oil shipments:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/10/world/americas/mexico-cuba-oil.html
https://www.semafor.com/article/02/10/2026/mexicos-claudia-sheinbaum-criticizes-us-oil-blockade-on-cuba

Airlines cancel flights amid fuel shortage:
https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-02-11/the-blow-to-tourism-puts-cubas-economy-on-the-brink-of-collapse.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp329d12lkqo

Conditions deteriorate in Cuba & government launches rationing plan:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/cuba-fuel-crisis-9.7083047
https://www.reuters.com/world/cuba-roll-out-rationing-plan-us-moves-block-fuel-supply-2026-02-05/
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/cuba-protect-essential-services-us-moves-cut-off-oil-supply-2026-02-07/

Talks between Cuban and US governments:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/08/world/americas/cuba-communist-government-trump.html
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/04/americas/cuba-us-talks-trump-regime-change-latam-intl

Marco Rubio on regime change:
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-wants-regime-change-in-cuba-rubio/3813649
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/04/americas/cuba-us-talks-trump-regime-change-latam-intl

Risks of Trump’s strategy:
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/02/how-far-will-trump-push-cuba

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