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The US and Iran are once again trading strikes in the most serious breach of the ceasefire so far. However with global oil stockpiles declining as countries attempt to stabilise prices and meet demands, things could prove increasingly costly for Trump.
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Sources:
Recent strikes
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwykq59jwpvo
https://www.ft.com/content/c7dac217-4a77-4640-9aa4-17ae7b0d5c0c?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Goldman oil data
https://x.com/alexgt1234c/status/2064793198208438366/photo/1
Brent crude prices
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
Data on reserves
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-09/iran-war-is-draining-world-s-oil-buffer-at-unprecedented-pace
https://www.ft.com/content/ae621e63-0be6-4818-9bec-eb1188737a1a
China changes in oil consumption/demand
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-05-08/iran-war-china-s-invisible-hand-is-rebalancing-the-oil-market?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-10/china-s-oil-stockpiling-keeps-traders-guessing-at-appec
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-06-18/china-s-oil-demand-drop-is-no-mystery
Bab al-Mandab
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/06/05/iran-war-oil-price-strait-hormuz-bab-el-mandeb-chokepoint.html
